Undiagnosed comorbidities among individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 in South African public hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported comorbid disease, including hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic cardiac and renal disease, malignancy, HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and obesity, to be associated with COVID­19 mortality. National demographic surveys have reported a high proportion of undiagnosed and untreated comorbid disease in South Africa (SA). OBJECTIVES: To determine the number of individuals with previously undiagnosed HIV, TB and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among patients hospitalised with COVID­19, and the level of medical control of these chronic diseases. METHODS: We conducted a sentinel surveillance study to collect enhanced data on HIV, TB and NCDs among individuals with COVID­19 admitted to 16 secondary-level public hospitals in six of the nine provinces of SA. Trained surveillance officers approached all patients who met the surveillance case definition for inclusion in the study, and consenting patients were enrolled. The data collection instrument included questions on past medical history to determine the self-reported presence of comorbidities. The results of clinical and laboratory testing introduced as part of routine clinical care for hospitalised COVID­19 patients were collected for the study, to objectively determine the presence of hypertension, diabetes, HIV and TB and the levels of control of diabetes and HIV. RESULTS: On self-reported history, the most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (n=1 658; 51.5%), diabetes (n=855; 26.6%) and HIV (n=603; 18.7%). The prevalence of self-reported active TB was 3.1%, and that of previous TB 5.5%. There were 1 254 patients admitted with COVID­19 (39.0%) who met the body mass index criteria for obesity. On clinical and laboratory testing, 87 patients were newly diagnosed with HIV, 29 with TB, 215 with diabetes and 40 with hypertension during their COVID­19 admission. There were 151/521 patients living with HIV (29.0%) with a viral load >1 000 copies/mL and 309/570 (54.2%) with a CD4 count <200 cells/µL. Among 901 patients classified as having diabetes, 777 (86.2%) had a glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) level ≥6.5%. CONCLUSION: The study revealed a high prevalence of comorbid conditions among individuals with COVID­19 admitted to public hospitals in SA. In addition, a significant number of patients had previously undiagnosed hypertension, diabetes, HIV and active TB, and many and poorly controlled chronic disease, as evidenced by high HbA1c levels in patients with diabetes, and high viral loads and low CD4 levels in patients with HIV. The findings highlight the importance of strengthening health systems and care cascades for chronic disease management, which include prevention, screening for and effectively treating comorbidities, and ensuring secure and innovative supplies of medicines in primary healthcare during the COVID­19 pandemic.

How Modelling and Analytics Informed the South African Government's COVID-19 Planning and Budgeting

Introduction/ Background: The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in March 2020 to support government planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare. We developed tools in response to changing decision maker needs in different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead of time. Methods: Our tools included generalised SEIR models, shortterm forecasts, cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections during the first wave and track the epidemic trajectory and forecast hospitalisation trends during the second and third wave. Given the rapidly changing nature of the pandemic, the model projections and methods were updated regularly. Projections, forecasts and monitoring metrics were regularly disseminated via dashboards. Results: The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities;2) the availability of new data, in particular from South African data systems whose coverage was improving continuously;and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa such as changes in lockdown levels and resulting mobility and contact rates, testing policy, contact tracing strategy, and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour, for example in reaction to increases in cases and deaths during first wave in May to August 2020, required the incorporation of behavioural response. Impact: We incorporated these aspects into projecting a third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast short-term trends in hospital admissions as the third wave started rolling. The SACMC has further updated the models to incorporate the impact of the vaccines and advise on booster options. Conclusion: The SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead of time, expand hospital capacity, allocate budgets, and procure additional resources where possible.

Leveraging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa.

By May 2021, South Africa (SA) had experienced two 'waves' of COVID-19 infections, with an initial peak of infections reached in July 2020, followed by a larger peak of infections in January 2021. Public health decisions rely on accurate and timely disease surveillance and epidemiological analyses, and accessibility of data at all levels of government is critical to inform stakeholders to respond effectively. In this paper, we describe the adaptation, development and operation of epidemiological surveillance and modelling systems in SA in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, including data systems for monitoring laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, mortality and recoveries at a national and provincial level, and how these systems were used to inform modelling projections and public health decisions. Detailed descriptions on the characteristics and completeness of individual datasets are not provided in this paper. Rapid development of robust data systems was necessary to support the response to the SA COVID-19 epidemic. These systems produced data streams that were used in decision-making at all levels of government. While much progress was made in producing epidemiological data, challenges remain to be overcome to address gaps to better prepare for future waves of COVID-19 and other health emergencies.

SAFETY and EFFECTIVENESS of the Ad26.COV2.S VACCINE in SOUTH AFRICA

Background: The Sisonke Phase IIIB open-label implementation study vaccinated health care workers (HCWs) with the single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine during two phases of the South African Covid-19 epidemic, dominated first by the Beta followed by the Delta variant of concern. Methods: HCWs were vaccinated over 3 months (17 February-17 May 2021). Safety was monitored by self-reporting, facility reporting and linkage to national databases. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against Covid-19 related hospitalisation, hospitalisation requiring critical or intensive care and death, ascertained 28 days or more post vaccination was assessed up until 17 July 2021. Nested sub-cohorts (A and B) from two national medical schemes were evaluated to assess VE using a matched retrospective cohort design. Results: Over the 3-month period, 477234 HCWs were vaccinated in 122 vaccination sites across South Africa. VE derived from the sub-cohorts comprising 215 813 HCWs was 83% (95% CI 75-89) to prevent Covid-19 deaths, 75% (95% CI 69-82) to prevent hospital admissions requiring critical or intensive care and 67% (95% CI 62-71) to prevent Covid-19 related hospitalisations. The VE was maintained in older HCWs and those with comorbidities including HIV infection. VE remained consistent throughout the Beta and Delta dominant phases of the study. 10279 adverse events were reported and 139 (1.4%) were serious, including two cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome and four cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome who recovered. Conclusion: The single dose Ad26.COV2.S was safe and effective against severe Covid-19 disease and death post-vaccination, and against both Beta and Delta variants providing real-world evidence for its use globally.

A position statement and practical guide to the use of particulate filtering facepiece respirators (N95, FFP2, or equivalent) for South African health workers exposed to respiratory pathogens including Mycobacterium tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2.

SUMMARY: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is transmitted mainly by aerosol in particles <10 µm that can remain suspended for hours before being inhaled. Because particulate filtering facepiece respirators ('respirators'; e.g. N95 masks) are more effective than surgical masks against bio-aerosols, many international organisations now recommend that health workers (HWs) wear a respirator when caring for individuals who may have COVID-19. In South Africa (SA), however, surgical masks are still recommended for the routine care of individuals with possible or confirmed COVID-19, with respirators reserved for so-called aerosol-generating procedures. In contrast, SA guidelines do recommend respirators for routine care of individuals with possible or confirmed tuberculosis (TB), which is also transmitted via aerosol. In health facilities in SA, distinguishing between TB and COVID-19 is challenging without examination and investigation, both of which may expose HWs to potentially infectious individuals. Symptom-based triage has limited utility in defining risk. Indeed, significant proportions of individuals with COVID-19 and/or pulmonary TB may not have symptoms and/or test negative. The prevalence of undiagnosed respiratory disease is therefore likely significant in many general clinical areas (e.g. waiting areas). Moreover, a proportion of HWs are HIV-positive and are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and death. RECOMMENDATIONS: Sustained improvements in infection prevention and control (IPC) require reorganisation of systems to prioritise HW and patient safety. While this will take time, it is unacceptable to leave HWs exposed until such changes are made. We propose that the SA health system adopts a target of 'zero harm', aiming to eliminate transmission of respiratory pathogens to all individuals in every healthcare setting. Accordingly, we recommend: the use of respirators by all staff (clinical and non-clinical) during activities that involve contact or sharing air in indoor spaces with individuals who: (i) have not yet been clinically evaluated; or (ii) are thought or known to have TB and/or COVID-19 or other potentially harmful respiratory infections;the use of respirators that meet national and international manufacturing standards;evaluation of all respirators, at the least, by qualitative fit testing; andthe use of respirators as part of a 'package of care' in line with international IPC recommendations. We recognise that this will be challenging, not least due to global and national shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE). SA national policy around respiratory protective equipment enables a robust framework for manufacture and quality control and has been supported by local manufacturers and the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition. Respirator manufacturers should explore adaptations to improve comfort and reduce barriers to communication. Structural changes are needed urgently to improve the safety of health facilities: persistent advocacy and research around potential systems change remain essential.